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EURUSD Daily Market Report - February 13, 2026

February 13, 2026 • Generated 10:02 AM Neutral 45% confidence

Neutral into US CPI: macro -0.07 & mkt impact -0.83 favor EUR, but 2Y spread +71bp caps upside; await 15:30 trigger

Executive Summary

Why This Bias?

Scenarios

Primary (Range)

Trigger: Failure to break 1.1900 pre-CPI; consolidation 1.1850–1.1890 into 15:30 print

Targets: Upside: 1.1900 on Core CPI ≤0.2% (softer than forecast), extension to 1.1925, Downside: 1.1830 on Core CPI ≥0.4% (hot print), continuation to 1.1800

Invalidation: Break and hold above 1.1900 before CPI (implies front-running soft data) or sub-1.1830 in Asia/London (early USD bid)

  • 2Y spread +71bp provides 1.1830–1.1850 demand zone despite macro -0.07 tilt
  • VIX +17.96% = option premium elevated; expect whipsaw post-CPI
  • Fed hike odds flat at 15% = low bar for dovish surprise to lift EUR
Alternate (Continuation)

Trigger: Core CPI ≤0.2% (below 0.3% forecast) + headline CPI y/y <2.5%; dovish Fed repricing accelerates EUR bid

Targets: 1.1900 immediate, 1.1925 within 2 hours, 1.1950 if Fed speakers (Logan 02:00, Miran 02:05 next session) reinforce dovish tone

Invalidation: Failure to reclaim 1.1880 within 30min post-CPI or Core CPI ≥0.3% in-line

  • CESI divergence (USD -11.13 vs EUR +3.65) supports EUR momentum if data cooperates
  • Market impact -0.83 already pricing some USD weakness; need clean beat for follow-through
  • Watch USDJPY: if sub-148.50 post-CPI, confirms broad USD sell-off

Session Playbook

Asia
Expectation
Thin range 1.1860–1.1880; FOMC Logan/Miran 02:00–02:05 unlikely to move (Low impact) but watch for hawkish outlier
Liquidity
Low; avoid chasing breaks outside 1.1850–1.1890 corridor
Key Levels
Support: 1.1850 (market impact -0.83 demand), 1.1830 (invalidation), Resistance: 1.1880, 1.1890 (pre-CPI supply)
London
Expectation
Positioning into CPI; German WPI 09:00 & EUR Flash GDP/Trade 12:00 (all Low impact) = non-events unless major miss
If/Then Logic
  • If 1.1890 breaks early London (08:00–10:00), fade to 1.1880 for CPI re-entry
  • If 1.1850 tests in EU morning, scalp long to 1.1870 ahead of NY open
Key Levels
1.1890 (session high resistance), 1.1870 (pivot; reclaim = bullish into CPI), 1.1850 (buy zone if macro -0.07 tilt attracts dip-bids)
New York
Expectation
CPI 15:30 drives session; expect 40–60 pip initial move, then retracement 50% within 1 hour if no Fed speaker follow-up
If/Then Logic
  • Core CPI ≤0.2%: buy 1.1880 dip for 1.1900+, stop 1.1865
  • Core CPI ≥0.4%: sell 1.1860 rally to 1.1830, stop 1.1875
  • In-line 0.3%: fade extremes; range 1.1860–1.1885 into close
Key Levels
1.1900 (breakout level, Alternate scenario trigger), 1.1870 (post-CPI retracement target), 1.1830 (downside target on hot print, Primary scenario)

Market Drivers

Macro

CESI divergence: USD -11.13 (Δ7d -2.78) vs EUR +3.65 (Δ7d +1.09)
EUR+
Data surprise momentum favors EUR but offset by yield spread; macro score -0.07 = marginal EUR tilt
Fed hike odds 15% (Δ7d flat)
EUR+
No change in pricing; low conviction but soft CPI could collapse odds further

Rates & Yields

US-DE 2Y spread +71bp (Δ7d -14bp)
USD+
Spread narrowing w/w = EUR gain, but +71bp absolute still supports USD; curve -66bp (inverted) = recession risk caps USD
US 10Y 4.18% vs DE 10Y 2.81%
USD+
Wide spread but 10Y less relevant for intraday FX; focus on 2Y and CPI reaction

Cross-Market

SPX -1.57% / VIX +17.96%
mixed
Risk-off typically USD+, but market impact -0.83 suggests EUR resilience; off-session move limits intraday relevance
WTI +2.04%
EUR+
Energy rally = EUR pressure (import cost), but cross-market energy score -0.62 already reflects this
USDJPY +0.10% / EURCHF -0.10%
EUR+
Correlation score -0.20 = mild EUR pressure from crosses, but low conviction

News

Headline: ECB stability outshines USD struggles; Schnabel pushback on hikes
neutral
News score +0.05 (confidence 84%) = no directional edge; EUR stability narrative vs USD weakness offset by Schnabel dovish lean

Risk Events

02:00 Low
FOMC Member Logan Speaks
Expected: 10–15 pip move only if unexpectedly hawkish (hike odds currently 15%); likely non-event
Playbook: Fade any USD spike above 1.1850 if Logan reiterates data-dependent stance
02:05 Low
FOMC Member Miran Speaks
Expected: Similar to Logan; back-to-back Low impact events = minimal Asia volatility expected
Playbook: Monitor for outlier hawkish tone; otherwise ignore
09:00 Low
German WPI m/m (forecast 0.1% vs -0.2% prior)
Expected: 5–10 pip max; wholesale prices less market-moving than consumer inflation
Playbook: Non-tradeable; use any EUR dip to position for CPI
12:00 Low
EUR Flash GDP q/q (0.3% f/c), Employment Change (0.1%), Trade Balance (10.2B)
Expected: In-line prints = no reaction; only major miss (<0.1% GDP) would pressure EUR 20–30 pips into NY
Playbook: Fade EUR weakness if data in-line; market focused on US CPI 3.5 hours later
15:30 High
US CPI m/m (0.3% f/c), Core CPI m/m (0.3% vs 0.2%), CPI y/y (2.5% vs 2.7%)
Expected: Core CPI ≤0.2% = EUR rally 40–60 pips (1.1900+); Core ≥0.4% = USD bid 50–70 pips (1.1830 target). In-line 0.3% = 20–30 pip chop then fade
Playbook: Wait for initial spike, then trade retracement: buy 1.1880 dip if soft, sell 1.1860 rally if hot. Avoid first 5 min; enter on 15–30 min pullback with 20-pip stop

Confidence Assessment

Overall Confidence: 45%

Disagreements

What Would Change This Bias?

Last 5 Days Reports

Friday, July 17, 2026 11:27 AM Tuesday, July 14, 2026 10:55 PM Wednesday, July 8, 2026 11:05 AM Monday, July 6, 2026 09:05 PM Sunday, July 5, 2026 06:54 PM