FlowScope
Sessions
← Back to Dashboard

EURUSD Daily Market Report - February 11, 2026

February 11, 2026 • Generated 09:05 AM Neutral 35% confidence

NFP day: macro neutral (-0.05 score), EUR data edge vs USD yield support; await 3:30pm trigger for directional break.

Executive Summary

Why This Bias?

Scenarios

Primary (Range)

Trigger: NFP <50K or wages >0.4% m/m breaks pre-event 1.1880–1.1950 consolidation

Targets: Downside: 1.1850 (market impact -0.82 aligns USD bid), then 1.1820, Upside: 1.1980 (EUR CESI +3.65 momentum), extension to 1.2010

Invalidation: Break and 4H close outside 1.1870–1.1960 before 15:30 Kyiv (pre-event stop hunt)

  • VIX +2.48% and SPX -0.33% suggest defensive positioning into NFP
  • WTI +2.04% (energy score -0.62) adds EUR headwind if risk-off accelerates
  • Fed hike odds unchanged at 15%; focus is labor market cooling vs wage stickiness
Alternate (Continuation)

Trigger: NFP 60–80K in-line, wages 0.3% as forecast; EUR CESI momentum (+1.09 Δ7d) drives bid through 1.1950

Targets: 1.1980, then 1.2010 if London extends, Retest 1.1920 support on profit-taking into NY close

Invalidation: Failure to reclaim 1.1930 within 2H post-NFP (reverts to USD bid on yield support)

  • Requires risk-on reversal (VIX compression) to validate EUR leg
  • US-DE 2Y spread narrowing trend (-25bp/7d) supports EUR if data cooperates
  • Italian IP at 11:00 and German 30Y auction at 12:34 are non-events unless severe miss

Session Playbook

Asia
Expectation
Thin range 1.1900–1.1930; no regional catalysts, NFP positioning dominates
Liquidity
Low; expect mean reversion within overnight range, avoid breakout chases
Key Levels
1.1920 pivot: hold = neutral into Europe, 1.1900 support: break signals early USD bid (front-run NFP caution)
London
Expectation
Consolidation 1.1880–1.1950 ahead of 15:30 NFP; Italian IP 11:00 and German auction 12:34 are filler
If/Then Logic
  • If Italian IP >0%: brief EUR pop to 1.1940, fade into NFP
  • If 1.1950 tested pre-NFP: sell rallies (risk-off tone, VIX +2.48% backdrop)
  • German 30Y auction weak (yield >3.60%): minor EUR pressure, watch 1.1900 support
Key Levels
1.1950 resistance: pre-NFP supply zone, 1.1880 support: breakdown = early USD positioning
New York
Expectation
NFP 15:30 is sole driver; expect 40–60 pip initial move, then 2H continuation or reversal by 18:00
If/Then Logic
  • NFP <50K + wages ≤0.3%: buy EUR through 1.1950, target 1.1980–1.2010 (Fed dovish repricing)
  • NFP >80K or wages >0.4%: sell EUR below 1.1900, target 1.1850–1.1820 (yield support, market impact -0.82)
  • In-line data (60–80K, 0.3% wages): fade initial spike, return to 1.1910–1.1930 by London close
Key Levels
1.1900 post-NFP: reclaim = neutral, lose = USD continuation, 1.1950 post-NFP: clear = EUR momentum, reject = range resumes

Market Drivers

Macro

CESI divergence
EUR+
EUR +3.65 level vs USD -3.73; Δ7d EUR +1.09 vs USD -0.93 shows EUR data momentum
MacroScore -0.05
neutral
Near-zero score (97% confidence) reflects offsetting EUR data strength vs USD yield/market technicals
Fed hike odds 15%
EUR+
Unchanged Δ7d; low probability keeps dovish Fed tilt, but NFP/wages can shift quickly

Rates & Yields

US-DE 2Y spread +67bp
USD+
Absolute level supports USD, but Δ7d -25bp narrowing is EUR-constructive trend
US 10Y 4.22% vs inverted curve -74bp
USD+
Inversion persists; recession fears cap USD upside but yield level still attractive vs EUR

Cross-Market

Market impact -0.82
USD+
Negative score = USD tailwind; SPX -0.33%, VIX +2.48% show risk-off undertone favoring USD
WTI +2.04%
EUR-
Energy score -0.62 adds EUR pressure (eurozone energy import sensitivity)
USDJPY +0.10% vs EURCHF -0.10%
USD+
Corr score -0.20 shows EUR relative underperformance vs USD in crosses

News

Headline sentiment +0.05
neutral
ECB stability narrative vs USD struggles offset; UK inflation cooling (GBP weakness) may weigh on EUR sympathy
ECB Schnabel rate clarity
neutral
'Didn't say rates should be raised' removes hawkish tail risk but no dovish catalyst either

Risk Events

11:00 Low
Italian Industrial Production m/m
Expected: Forecast -0.4% vs +1.5% prior; miss to -0.6%+ = 10–15 pip EUR dip, beat to 0%+ = brief 10 pip pop, both fade into NFP
Playbook: Ignore unless extreme miss (<-1.0%); not enough to override NFP positioning
12:34 Low
German 30-y Bond Auction
Expected: Previous 3.49% yield, 2.4 bid-cover; weak auction (yield >3.60%, b/c <2.2) = minor EUR softness 5–10 pips, strong auction ignored
Playbook: Monitor only if coincides with 1.1950 test; weak result adds supply justification
15:30 High
NFP + Average Hourly Earnings
Expected: NFP <50K or wages >0.4% = 40–60 pip move; <30K = EUR rally to 1.1980+, >100K + 0.4%+ wages = USD bid to 1.1850; in-line (60–80K, 0.3%) = 20–30 pip chop then fade
Playbook: Primary catalyst: wait 15:30 print, trade breakout of 1.1880–1.1950 range with 20-pip stops; continuation likely if initial move >40 pips in 15 min
15:30 High
Unemployment Rate
Expected: Forecast 4.4% unchanged; uptick to 4.5%+ amplifies dovish NFP reaction (+10–15 pips EUR), hold at 4.4% or drop to 4.3% mutes weak NFP impact
Playbook: Secondary to NFP/wages but watch for divergence (e.g., strong NFP + rising U-rate = mixed, range-bound)

Confidence Assessment

Overall Confidence: 35%

Disagreements

What Would Change This Bias?

Last 5 Days Reports

Friday, July 17, 2026 11:27 AM Tuesday, July 14, 2026 10:55 PM Wednesday, July 8, 2026 11:05 AM Monday, July 6, 2026 09:05 PM Sunday, July 5, 2026 06:54 PM