FlowScope
Sessions
← Back to Dashboard

EURUSD Daily Market Report - January 13, 2026

January 13, 2026 • Generated 09:07 AM EUR-lean 45% confidence

EUR-lean into US CPI; macro +0.03 score, EUR CESI +1.09 vs USD -1.58, but 15:30 Kyiv CPI print is the only trigger that matters.

Executive Summary

Why This Bias?

Scenarios

Primary (Continuation)

Trigger: US Core CPI 15:30 Kyiv prints ≤0.3% m/m (inline or softer) and headline ≤0.3%; EUR extends above 1.16638 Asia high

Targets: 1.1680 initial resistance, 1.1700 psychological if momentum sustains post-CPI

Invalidation: Core CPI >0.3% m/m or break below 1.16400 ahead of London open

  • London Continuation confidence 60%, NY Continuation 50% suggests fade risk into NY close
  • CESI divergence (EUR +1.09 Δ7d vs USD -1.58) supports EUR but market impact -0.90 caps upside
  • Order flow cumDelta -35 and sell bias 50.23% warns of seller presence; need CPI miss to confirm
Alternate (Reversal)

Trigger: Core CPI >0.3% m/m (upside surprise) or headline >0.3%; liquidity sweep above 1.16638 Asia high rejected, break below 1.16566 Asia low

Targets: 1.1640 initial support, 1.1620 if USD bid accelerates post-CPI

Invalidation: Reclaim 1.16638 Asia high and hold above into NY session

  • US-DE 2Y spread +0.88% and market impact -0.90 favor USD on hot CPI
  • Fed hike odds 15% (flat Δ7d) but any CPI upside reprices March cut odds lower, USD+
  • Cross-market: WTI +2.04% and USDJPY +0.10% already signal USD undertone; CPI catalyst flips bias

Session Playbook

Asia
Expectation
Range 1.16566–1.16638 (72 pips) holds; cumDelta -35 and sell 50.23% suggest modest EUR pressure but no conviction pre-CPI
Liquidity
Tick speed 27, zero imbalance count = thin, two-way chop; avoid breakout trades
Key Levels
1.16638 Asia high (resistance), 1.16566 Asia low (support), 1.16618 current price pivot
London
Expectation
Continuation bias 60% confidence; expect probe above 1.16638 Asia high if EUR sentiment persists, but French Budget 9:45 Kyiv (Low impact) unlikely to move
If/Then Logic
  • If break above 1.16638 pre-CPI, target 1.1680 but watch for liquidity sweep reversal into 15:30 Kyiv
  • If reject at 1.16638 and drift to 1.16566, Alternate scenario (Reversal) gains probability into NY CPI
Key Levels
1.16638 Asia high / London breakout trigger, 1.1680 initial resistance, 1.16566 Asia low / invalidation
New York
Expectation
CPI 15:30 Kyiv (Core 0.3% f/c vs 0.2% prior, headline 0.3% vs 0.3%) is the only driver; Continuation confidence 50% = coin flip, wait for print
If/Then Logic
  • If Core ≤0.3% and headline ≤0.3%, Primary scenario: EUR extends to 1.1680–1.1700, fade into close given 50% NY confidence
  • If Core >0.3% or headline >0.3%, Alternate scenario: USD bid, target 1.1640–1.1620, watch ADP 15:20 Kyiv (Medium impact) for confirmation
  • New Home Sales 17:00 Kyiv (Medium, f/c 715K) and Musalem 17:00 Kyiv (Low) secondary; 30y auction 20:01 Kyiv and Barkin 23:00 Kyiv noise only
Key Levels
1.1680 Primary target, 1.16638 Asia high / pivot, 1.1640 Alternate target, 1.16400 Primary invalidation

Market Drivers

Macro

MacroScore +0.03
USD+
Score >0 = USD advantage but +0.03 is negligible, 87% confidence
CESI divergence: EUR +3.65 level, +1.09 Δ7d vs USD -6.33 level, -1.58 Δ7d
EUR+
7-day surprise momentum favors EUR, contradicts MacroScore
Fed hike odds 15% (Δ7d +0pp)
EUR+
Flat hike odds cap USD upside, but CPI print can reprice cut odds

Rates & Yields

US-DE 2Y spread +0.88% (Δ7d +0.01%)
USD+
Spread widening = USD+, but Δ7d +0.01% is minimal change
US yield curve -0.64% (2s10s inverted)
neutral
Inversion signals recession risk, caps USD rally but not directional today
US 2Y 3.54%, DE 2Y 2.66%
USD+
88bp differential supports USD carry but priced in

Cross-Market

Market impact score -0.90
USD+
Negative score = USD tailwind / EUR headwind, strongest signal
SPX +1.01%, VIX -1.0%
neutral
Risk-on tilt (score +0.32) but off-session move, weight 0.3
WTI +2.04%
USD+
Energy score -0.62 = EUR pressure, weight 0.15
USDJPY +0.10%, EURCHF -0.10%
USD+
Corr score -0.20 = EUR pressure, weight 0.2

News

News sentiment EUR_BULLISH, score +0.10452, confidence 82.9%
EUR+
Headlines: 'ECB stability outshines USD struggles', 'Schnabel rates comment', but contradicts market impact -0.90

Risk Events

09:45 Low
French Gov Budget Balance
Expected: Minimal; previous -136.2B, no forecast, EUR noise only
Playbook: Ignore unless massive surprise; focus remains on 15:30 US CPI
13:00 Low
NFIB Small Business Index
Expected: Forecast 99.5 vs 99.0 prior; slight USD+ if beat but pre-CPI positioning dominates
Playbook: Monitor for USD sentiment but not a trade trigger
15:20 Medium
ADP Weekly Employment Change
Expected: No forecast, prior 11.5K; if strong (>15K) = USD+ into CPI 10min later, weak (<8K) = USD-
Playbook: 10min before CPI: use as directional hint but CPI overrides; if ADP strong + CPI hot = Alternate scenario accelerates
15:30 High
US CPI (Core m/m 0.3% f/c vs 0.2% prior, headline m/m 0.3% vs 0.3%, y/y 2.7% vs 2.7%)
Expected: Core >0.3% or headline >0.3% = USD spike, target 1.1640–1.1620 (Alternate); Core ≤0.3% + headline ≤0.3% = EUR rally to 1.1680–1.1700 (Primary)
Playbook: Primary trade: inline/miss CPI, buy EUR on dip to 1.16566, target 1.1680, stop 1.16400. Alternate: hot CPI, sell EUR on spike to 1.16638, target 1.1640, stop 1.16700. Volatility spike expected; wait 5min post-print for fake moves to clear.
17:00 Medium
New Home Sales (f/c 715K)
Expected: Secondary to CPI; if CPI was hot and New Home Sales >750K = USD extension, if CPI soft and Sales <680K = EUR extension
Playbook: Confirmation signal only; trade the CPI direction, use New Home Sales to add or trim
17:00 Low
FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
Expected: Post-CPI commentary; if CPI hot and Musalem hawkish = USD+, if CPI soft and dovish = EUR+
Playbook: Headline risk only; unlikely to reverse CPI move but can extend it
20:01 Low
30-y Bond Auction
Expected: Prior 4.77% yield, 2.4 bid-to-cover; weak auction (low b/c, high yield) = USD- marginally, strong = USD+ but post-CPI noise
Playbook: Ignore unless catastrophic tail; focus on CPI-driven positioning
23:00 Low
FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Expected: Late session, post-CPI context; hawkish = USD+ into Asia open, dovish = EUR+
Playbook: Asia open positioning signal; if CPI was hot and Barkin hawkish, expect gap lower EUR in Asia Wed

Confidence Assessment

Overall Confidence: 45%

Disagreements

What Would Change This Bias?

Last 5 Days Reports

Friday, July 17, 2026 11:27 AM Tuesday, July 14, 2026 10:55 PM Wednesday, July 8, 2026 11:05 AM Monday, July 6, 2026 09:05 PM Sunday, July 5, 2026 06:54 PM